Category Archives: 2009 Elections

Results analysis

Must be brief here, and will return soon. There is a tremendous amount of coverage of last night’s elections. Although, some of the interesting results in smaller races around the country have been largely overlooked by the national press in favor of the Virginia, New Jersey and New York races.

Conservatives and Republicans have something to celebrate. It’s true we must be cautious in extrapolating the results for midterm predictive purposes. However, the outcomes and the exit poll internals hold significant positives and negatives for Republicans and Democrats, respectively.

Independents swung dramatically towards Republicans from a year ago, although turnout was of course on a much lower scale. Youth and African American turnout was depressed, leaving Democrats without the support they offered Obama one year ago. Seniors trended Republican.  And overall intensity was all on the GOP side.

There’s a lot to dissect, and we’ll continue to see it. Again, will try to be back on later with some more analysis. I recommend Real Clear Politics today, including Michael Barone’s piece on how congressional candidates in Virginia (and by extension, around the country) might interpret the returns in their own districts on the statewide ballot. (Hint: in some close districts, and even some blue districts, the electorate threw in big with the GOP).

Regardless of how significant or insignificant the results are in terms of impact on the policy agenda for the next year and the electoral outcomes of the midterms, one thing is clear. It feels good to be a Republican today.

 

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Election Results, Latest Polling Data

[UPDATE: McDonnell (R) wins Virginia. Christie (R) wins New Jersey. Owens (D) holds close edge over Hoffmann (C) in NY 23. Politico seems to have one of the better live update boards tonight.]

Virginia. Latest Polling: McDonnell (R) +13.4%

New Jersey. Latest Polling: Christie (R) +1%

New York 23. Latest Polling: Hoffmann (R) +5%

California 10. Latest Polling: Garamendi (D) +10%

TOMORROW MORNING on Principally Political: We’ll look at the “Obama Impact,” which I use to label the difference in each of these electoral jurisdictions between the vote total percentage Obama won in November 2008, versus the votes earned by the Democrat in November 2009. It’s been a year since Obama was elected and Democrats increased their margins in the House and Senate. Does the public like what they see? Are these races even fair or accurate proxies for that question? How, if at all, will the results impact current congressional ongoings? That and more, coming up…

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Filed under 2009 Elections